Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Oil and the RV

The least effected of oil producing countries by falling oil prices are countries whose cost to extract crude is the lowest or who have lots of IQD (IQD = Oil Discount Coupons).  These countries include USA (lots of IQD and oil), China (lots of IQD), Iraq (near surface reserves), and Saudi Arabia (near surface oil). 

 The countries that are directly hurt the most are high cost producers or who do not have the same IQD agreements with Iraq and are: Russia, Venezuela, Syria/ISIS, and a few other high cost oil producing countries at odds with OPEC.  The whole developed and developing world who are reliant on imported oil will benefit greatly with low oil prices.  The net benefit to the world is undeniable.   While domestic USA oil producers are hurt in the near term the benefit of the RV will dwarf the short term impact.  The mid-term six-12 months period will find oil prices will rise again to meet the increased world GDP generated by the stimulus of low oil prices and the GCR.


It is actually a marvelous plan to hurt our enemies, placate our bondholders, and put our Middle East "friends" at a competitive advantage by hurting high cost producers reducing their share of global markets.  Opec is dead and new oil alliances will be created to meet new oil production and political goals or OPEC will crush the high cost producers.  AND THE WHOLE PLAN WORKS TO STRENGTHEN THE DOLLAR FOR BOTH OR EITHER AN INFLATION RESPONSE (BETTER STARTING VALUE FOR A FUTURE OF RISING INTEREST RATES) OR A CHANGE TO A COMMODITY BACK CURRENCY (WHICH WILL ALSO PROBABLY WORK TO WEAKEN USD FIAT CURRENCY DURING THE REPLACEMENT PERIOD).  SO YES THE RV IS RELATED TO THE FALLING OIL PRICES. IQD discounts representing 32-35 DOLLAR A BARREL STILL REPRESENTS A 25% DISCOUNT TO OIL EVEN IF OIL FALLS TO 40-45 DOLLAR A BARREL PRICES.

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