April 10, 2015

Northern Illinois Tornado 4/9/2015 predicted by Tornado Intensity Model

The Tornado Intensity Model (TIM) was developed similar to the current significant tornado mask used today by forecasters.  However, the model has some tweaks to it to pin down location that may experience EF0 to EF5 type tornadoes and it predicted Northern Illinois’ Wedge Tornado of April 9, 2015. Read on for details. On the morning of April 9th, 2015 […]
The dryline will be across The Texas Panhandle today and this will be the focal point for thunderstorm development.  More than enough instability and shear from there into Southeast CO and Southwest KS will be available for supercell development, containing large hail and damaging winds.  Isolated tornado potential does exist in the evening, but the tornado window is EF0 and very low, between 1-2 hour window then the boundary layer cools and storms will become elevated, or non-tornadic later on.
Because of the short window, have opted out of a tornado watch … but tornadoes can and do form with any severe thunderstorm … The strongest supercell activity will be extreme Southeast CO into Southwest KS with a cell moving from CO into KS this evening …